October 08, 2026
The Michigan Center for Data and Analytics (MCDA) long-term employment projections show the estimated employment growth of industries and occupations across Michigan. These estimates can support key stakeholders, such as policymakers and workforce development agencies, in making informed decisions aimed at strengthening the skills and productivity of the labor force. In September 2026, the MCDA published long-term statewide employment projections, covering the 10-year period from 2024 to 2034.
In addition to total statewide data, projections provide employment information by federally-defined industries and occupations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) organizes industries into supersectors and occupations into major occupational groups, with many individual industries and occupations comprising each. The MCDA long-term employment projections estimate for 11 industry supersectors and 22 major occupational groups.
Michigan is expected to grow slightly over the decade, with roughly half of industry supersectors and more than half of occupational groups projected to add employment. However, the remaining supersectors and groups contract, altering the employment make-up of the state. The largest number of jobs and fastest rate of growth is anticipated to be in industries and occupations related to healthcare services.
Michigan is projected to add 18,320 jobs from 2024 to 2034, a gain of 0.4 percent. This is 2.7 percentage points slower than the nation, with the BLS projecting growth of 3.1 percent over the same period. But employment change is not uniform across all Michigan industries, leading to shifts in Michigan’s industry composition. Most prominently, this includes a notable employment transition towards Education and health services1 and away from Manufacturing.
Over the decade, five of the state’s 11 industry supersectors are expected to grow and six are expected to shrink as a share of total Michigan employment. Education and health services – Michigan's largest supersector by employment in 2024 – is projected to increase from 22.4 percent of total Michigan employment in 2024 to 23.5 percent in 2034, the largest percentage point growth of all supersectors (+1.2 percentage points). Others with notable gains include Financial activities (+0.2 percentage points) and Professional and business services (+0.1 percentage points).
These share increases are mitigated by losses in other supersectors. Manufacturing – the fourth largest supersector in 2024 – is expected to drop from 12.6 percent of Michigan’s employment to 11.9 percent over the 10-year period. This 0.7 percentage point drop is the largest of all declining industry supersectors. Other prominent decreases include Trade, transportation, and utilities (-0.4 percentage points) and Leisure and hospitality (-0.2 percentage points).
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Source: 2024 to 2034 Michigan Statewide Long-Term Employment Projections, Michigan Center for Data and Analytics
Education and health services – the supersector leading employment share growth – has by far the highest anticipated job gains (+60,200) and rate of growth (+5.6 percent) statewide. Its sizeable advance is consistent with the nation, where it is expected to expand at a rate of 5.2 percent. However, a look at its underlying subgroups reveals diverging trends.
Growth in Michigan’s Education and health services supersector is dominated by healthcare. All four subsectors within Healthcare and social assistance lead the supersector in growth. This includes Hospitals (+25,700), Ambulatory health care services (+22,570), Social assistance (+9,900), and Nursing and residential care facilities (+8,110). By contrast, Educational services is expected to contract by 6,070 jobs.
Two other supersectors expected to post substantial employment gains are Financial activities and Professional and business services. Financial activities is projected to add 10,330 jobs by 2034, exhibiting a growth rate of 4.4 percent, the second greatest across the state over the decade. Its Real estate (+6,140) and Insurance carriers and related activities (+3,330) subsectors contribute over 90 percent of the supersector’s job growth. More than half of the subsectors in Financial activities are projected to have virtually no employment change.
Professional and business services is the supersector with the third largest contributor of jobs in the state (+8,430), and fourth largest by growth rate (+1.3 percent). Its rise is led by the Professional, scientific, and technical services subsector (+12,870), with all but one of the remaining subsectors expected to contract. The only other subsector projected to add employment in the supersector is Waste management and remediation services, at just 490 new jobs over the decade.
Although not contributing a high volume of jobs, the remaining growing industry supersectors – Construction (+1.8 percent) and Natural resources and mining (+0.5 percent) – are both predicted to advance at a faster rate than the state as a whole (+0.4 percent). Combined, these two supersectors are expected to generate 3,630 new jobs over the decade.
Largely offsetting the employment growth gains of these five industry supersectors are losses in the remaining six, particularly Manufacturing. Looking at projected jobs lost from 2024 to 2034, the anticipated drop in Manufacturing is notable, with an expected numeric loss of 31,120 (-5.2 percent), more than the next three supersectors combined. This is unlike Manufacturing nationwide, where employment is expected to remain flat over the decade. This is in line with trends since the turn of the millennium, a period in which Michigan consistently lagged the nation in Manufacturing employment. From 2000 to 2024, Michigan lost 32.3 percent of its Manufacturing jobs, compared to 25.8 percent for the U.S.2
Source: 2024 to 2034 Michigan Statewide Long-Term Employment Projections, Michigan Center for Data and Analytics; Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Within Manufacturing, job losses are concentrated in the Transportation equipment manufacturing subsector, with an expected decline of 21,840 jobs (-12.0 percent). This is followed by Fabricated metal product manufacturing (-7,050) and Machinery manufacturing (-6,770). All three subsectors have strong ties to Michigan's automotive sector. Just eight of Manufacturing’s 21 subsectors are expected to gain employment.
As with Manufacturing, the Trade, transportation, and utilities supersector is projected to contract markedly, losing 16,840 jobs, placing it second by jobs lost and third by relative change (-2.1 percent). The industry’s projected job loss is concentrated within several declining subsectors, with the five largest being in retail. These include Clothing, clothing accessories, shoe, and jewelry retailers (-5,700); Food and beverage retailers (-5,070); and Gasoline stations and fuel dealers (-4,550). Just over half of the 24 subsectors in Trade, transportation, and utilities are expected to lose jobs.
Leisure and hospitality posts the third largest predicted numeric job decline (-7,480) and fourth largest relative decline (-1.8 percent) among Michigan supersectors. This retreat is overwhelmingly attributable to the Food services and drinking places (-9,680) subsector. The Performing arts, spectator sports, and related industries subsector likewise contracts, projected to recede by just 80 jobs over the decade. The combined job losses of these two subsectors (-9,760) is only partially offset by job additions in the remaining three subsectors (+2,270). Accommodation, including hotels and motels contributes roughly half of that offset (+1,030).
Michigan’s remaining three industry supersectors are projected to decline by less than 5,000 jobs each, including Information (-4,790); Public administration (-4,040);1 and Other services (except government) (-1,440). Although Information had the second lowest employment of all supersectors in 2024, it is projected to fall at the fastest pace (-8.5 percent).
Projections data not only estimate growth across industries but also by occupations based on the Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) system. This system categorizes jobs into over 850 standardized occupation titles based on factors such as work performed and the skills, education, and/or training needed to perform the work. These occupations are also grouped into one of 22 major occupational groups.
As with industries, Michigan's employment composition by occupational groups is largely expected to shift towards healthcare. Healthcare practitioners and technical (+0.6 percentage points) and Healthcare support (+0.5 percentage points) increase their share the most, so that by 2034 each will encompass 7.0 percent and 4.6 percent of Michigan employment, respectively. Management also gains 0.2 percentage points to reach a share of 7.7 percent. Conversely, occupations that perform Office and administrative support (-0.7 percentage points); Production (-0.6 percentage points); and Sales and related (-0.5 percentage points) tasks are predicted to experience the largest loss as a share of total employment.
Healthcare-related occupations are projected to dominate employment gains in the state. Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are predicted to add 28,610 jobs, with Healthcare support jobs close behind at 24,100. This places these groups first and second in job growth statewide, respectively. By rate of growth, the order reverses: Healthcare support occupations are expected to expand by 12.3 percent, while Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are anticipated to grow by 9.3 percent, ranking them as the top two fastest‑growing occupational groups statewide.
Within Healthcare practitioners and technical, occupations with the largest predicted employment increases include Registered nurses (+9,030) and Nurse practitioners (+3,410). Physician assistants complete the top three list, with an expected increase of 1,300 positions. No occupations within the Healthcare practitioners and technical group are predicted to lose jobs during the projections period.
Similarly, most occupations in Healthcare support are projected to grow, with the exception of four occupations, which remain flat over the decade. Top growers in Healthcare support consist of the group's largest occupation by employment, Home health and personal care aides (+14,200); Medical assistants (+3,130); and Nursing assistants (+2,560). Home health and personal care aides also stands out as being the occupation projected to add the most jobs statewide.
Although not as pronounced as healthcare, Management occupations are predicted to experience strong growth (+12,120), continuing a trend recorded during the post-pandemic recovery. These employment additions are carried by Medical and health services managers (+4,010); Financial managers (+2,380); and Computer and information systems managers (+1,610). Combined, they represent about two-thirds of the net job growth of all Management occupations.
The same three major groups – Healthcare practitioners and technical; Healthcare support; and Management – are predicted to grow the most nationally in numeric terms. However, only Healthcare support (+12.4 percent) and Healthcare practitioners and technical (+7.2 percent) are in the top three by rate of growth, with Computer and mathematical placing second (+10.1 percent).
For further insights into which occupations are expected to contribute most to job growth in Michigan, see this month’s Relevant Rankings article.
Source: 2024 to 2034 Michigan Statewide Long-Term Employment Projections, Michigan Center for Data and Analytics
Nine of Michigan's 22 major occupational groups are expected to contract over the decade. This decline is led by Office and administrative support (-30,040); Production (-27,430); and Sales and related (-23,380). These same groups are among the top three by rate of decline, with Production (-6.1 percent) ranked first, followed by Sales and related (-5.9 percent) and Office and administrative support (-5.6 percent). Nationally, the story is similar, with all three contributing most to numeric losses. Farming, fishing, and forestry stands out for contracting at the second fastest rate (-2.5 percent) at the national level, diverging from state trends.
Statewide, Office and administrative support is projected to see reductions in jobs across most of its occupations. The steepest losses are expected for Office clerks, general (-7,730); Customer service representatives (-4,950); and Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks (-3,700). Interestingly, Medical secretaries and administrative assistants, an occupation which is often found within the healthcare industry, is expected to grow the most within the occupational group (+1,430).
Similarly, within Production – a group for which Michigan ranks fourth among states and D.C. for location concentration – a majority of its occupations are expected to shed jobs.3 Notable decreases are projected for the largest occupation in the state, Miscellaneous assemblers and fabricators (-7,730); Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic (-4,330); and Tool and die makers (-1,660). None of the occupations in the group are expected to gain more than 500 jobs over the decade.
Retail-adjacent professions dominate the decline for Sales and related, with Cashiers (-11,980), Retail salespersons (-7,060), and First-line supervisors of retail sales workers (-3,280) making up nearly all the major group's net job losses. Cashiers are particularly distinguished for posting the largest expected numeric loss of any occupation in the state.
It is important to recognize that many of these declining groups and occupations will continue to offer opportunities as people change positions or exit the labor force altogether. For example, although Cashiers are projected to have the largest employment losses of any occupation in the state over the decade, they are still expected to generate nearly 15,000 openings annually. This is the fourth highest openings of all Michigan occupations. Indeed, seven of the 10 occupations generating the most annual openings are expected to decline in total employment. They are projected to supply approximately one in five annual openings statewide.
Statewide projections offer essential insights into the direction of the state’s labor market and economy. While Michigan’s topline numbers indicate modest growth over the decade, focusing on specific industry and occupational categorizations tells a more nuanced story. By examining changes at these more detailed levels, stakeholders can identify opportunities and tailor solutions geared towards creating a stronger Michigan workforce. Visit the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics website for more information on Michigan’s Hot Jobs and Career Outlook through 2034.
1The MCDA long-term employment projections places government-owned education and health employment in Education and health services. For this reason, the Education and health services supersector encompasses both private and public education and health employment. The remaining government employment is referred to as Public administration.
2The BLS periodically updates estimates. As more data becomes available, series are revised or benchmarked. The data referenced was the data available at the time of the 2024 to 2034 projections estimation process.
3These occupational comparisons are based on occupations with available estimates; some estimates are suppressed due to confidentiality reasons.
For more information on Michigan's employment projections, or to download the latest data, visit Employment Projections.
