Estimated Population for States: 2000-2006

Charts 
   Estimated Population of Michigan: 2000-2006
   Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2006   
  Total Net Migration: Michigan, 1960-2006
   Unemployment Rates: 1976-2006 (highest state, lowest state, and Michigan)
   Gap Between Michigan Unemployment Rate and Lowest Rate in the U.S.: 1976-2006
   Estimated Rate of Net Migration to Other States: 2000-2006 (all states)

Tables
   Estimated Population by State: 2000-2006
   Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2006 
Additional tables for all states are available from the population estimates page of the U.S. Census Bureau website.
   
Summary of New Estimates of Michigan Population

New population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that Michigan's population has been essentially unchanged at 10.1 million for the past two years.  (Click here for chart showing population growth.)  The estimated increase of 7,000 from 2004 to 2005 and the estimated decrease of 5,000 from 2005 to 2006 are both well within the margin of error for these estimates.  In fact, slightly more than 90 percent of Michigan's estimated population loss from 2005 to 2006 reflects an understatement of births and an overstatement of deaths.  (Click here for details on vital statistics errors.)

Total Net Migration.  The biggest factor holding back Michigan's population growth has been net migration out of the state, which has been increasing gradually since 1999.  However, to put this development in context, it should be noted that Michigan's current level of out-migration is lower than in the early 1960's, the mid-1970's, or the early 1980's.  Based on the Census Bureau's new estimates, Michigan lost an estimated net total of 115,000 residents through migration from April 2000 through July 2006.  That is considerably less than the 158,000 residents lost through migration from 1981 to 1982 alone.  (Click here for chart showing migration trend.)

Impact of Unemployment. One reason why Michigan is not losing more population is that there has been considerable convergence of unemployment rates among the states.  The states with the best unemployment rates have not been doing quite as well as they usually do, while the states with the worst rates are not doing as badly as usual.  (Click here for chart showing convergence of unemployment rates.)  Because of that convergence, 38 states with 86 percent of the nation's population have unemployment rates within 3 percentage points of Michigan's rate in 2006, based on data for the first ten months of the year. 

Michigan's average unemployment rate for the first ten months of 2006 has been 2.1 percentage points higher than the corresponding national figure.  In 1981, when Michigan's unemployment was 4.9 percentage points higher than the national figure, only 6 states had unemployment rates within 3 percentage points of Michigan's.  Although the current gap between Michigan's unemployment rate and the lowest rate in the U.S. is larger than it was between 1994 and 2005, it is smaller that it ever was between 1976 and 1993. (Click here for chart showing unemployment gap.)

Importance of Other Factors.  Other factors influence migration in addition to the labor market, as evidenced by the fact that Michigan has a slower rate net out-migration to other states than several areas with less unemployment.  Although Michigan has the third highest unemployment rate in the U.S. (based on data for the first ten months of 2006), the Census Bureau's latest population estimates indicate that Michigan has had only the 10th highest rate of net domestic out-migration from 2000 to 2006.  Areas with faster rates of population loss to other states are the District of Columbia (-10.6%), Louisiana (-7.4%), New York (-6.5%), Massachusetts (-4.6%), Illinois (-3.8%), New Jersey (-3.3%), North Dakota (-3.3%), California (-2.8%), and Kansas (-2.4%).  Michigan also has an estimated rate of -2.4%.  Wisconsin is the only Great Lakes state for which the Census Bureau has estimated net in-migration (+0.2%).

All of the areas ranked below Michigan with respect to domestic migration have lower unemployment rates.  Kansas, Louisiana, and North Dakota have unemployment rates below the national average for the first ten months of 2006 (4.6%, 4.3%, and 3.3% respectively).  The other states with faster out-migration than Michigan all have unemployment rates within 2 percentage points of Michigan's rate (6.7%).  Alaska and Mississippi, which both have higher unemployment than Michigan, have slightly slower rates of net out-migration.  (Click here for chart showing net domestic migration rates for all states.)

Updated December 22, 2006